Of Waterway Transportation Science Research Institute of the experts said in an interview, as the first half of the domestic and international economic slowdown in the second half of the year appeared, the pace of economic recovery will be slow, therefore, the second half of the year international shipping market situation won't improve apparently, supply and demand contradictions are still prominent, shipping enterprises it is difficult to walk out of predicament.
The experts in the analysis of the domestic and international economic situation changes that, during the first half of this year, the major developed economies recovery falters. The United States unemployment rate started to rebound, real estate is still stagnant, declining consumer confidence; within the euro area economy development unbalance is more and more outstanding, the debt crisis is still grim, inflation remained high; the Japanese economic growth recession; major emerging economies by the global inflation worries, generally entered a cycle of interest rate, influence economy growth.
In this context, the international agency lowered on the global and Chinese economic growth:
One is the International Monetary Fund on2011IMF reduces the expected global economic growth. In June the organization has just released the report, in 2011the global economic growth rate at 4.3%, than the report published in April decreased by 0.1percentage points. The developed economies growth to 2.2%, than the report published in April decreased by 0.2percentage points.
Two world bank organizations such as China's economic growth in 2011is expected to reduce. According to the world bank" China Economic Quarterly" analysis, Chinese economy is in 2011 ～2012 growth will be slowing down. " Upgrading" and" structure" influence, the future investment growth will likely slow. Consumption inflation on consumption causes adverse effect. Inflation pressure will reduce the real income growth and reduce consumer confidence, the two or three quarter will be more outstanding effects. China Import and export trade in the global market share increase has slowed. Prediction in 2011 China's exports grew by 12.4% in real imports, the actual growth rate reached 13.2%. Is expected in 2011 China's real GDP growth rate from 201010.3% to20129.3%, dropped to 8.7%.
In addition, the expert thinks, the international dry bulk cargo, oil, container transport power of market situation of supply exceeding demand will run through the year 2011. According to Clarkson, the year 2011shipping market is generally in a state of oversupply. The demand for shipping88.4tons, grow 5.6% compared to the same period. While the ship transport power reachs 1410000000 carring capacity ton, an increase of 9.4%, the growth in capacity is greater than demand growth of 3.8 percentage points. So in 2011 the international shipping market in general is not optimistic.
Expected full-year dry bulk demand 34.9tons, grow 5.9% compared to the same period, the fleet transport power530000000deadweight tons, grow 16.8% compared to the same period, the growth in capacity is greater than demand growth of nearly11 percentage points, the contradiction between supply and demand in the three major markets in the most serious, so the second half of freight rate index is likely to continue to lower oscillation.
Tanker transportation market growth in capacity is greater than demand growth of nearly1.4 percentage points, contradiction of supply and demand with relative ease, the second half of the year may maintain basic first half of the price trend.
Container transport market supply and demand situation best, demand growth is slightly larger than the growth capacity of nearly 1 percentage points, the second half of the year price trend may be slightly better than the first half of.
Referring to our shipping enterprises to deal with the second half of the year the shipping market changes, the expert pointed out, a careful analysis of domestic and international economic development situation and the impact on shipping; two to calm analysis on its own strength and the first half of the year work performance; three to correctly formulate development strategies, do a good job" adjust a structure, transform the mode of development " of the work. In short, the shipping enterprises must grasp the initiative in the market, must accomplish know yourself as well as the enemy, to fight.