Australia flood to the already weak international dry bulk market more delicate. As of January 21, 2011, the Baltic Dry Index ( BDI ) for 1370 points, hit its lowest level in two years.
Although Australia flood led to its coal and grain products export to be blocked is the recent BDI index continued to decline the important reasons, but exploring fundamental, global dry bulk market excess capacity is BDI even low cause.
The BDI index continued to decline
Since the end of201010, BDI continued to drop, as of January 21, 2011, the BDI has dropped to 1370 points, hit a two-year low.
The bad weather led to the Australian goods exports to become the BDI index falling catalyst.
2010since late December, by" La Nina weather phenomenon" influence, represented by Australia suffered devastating floods in some countries, but the goods exports of iron ore and coal, which became the most heavily affected two varieties, directly drives the Cape-based ship and Panama boat freight rate drops considerably.
It is reported, BHP and FMG exports to Asian market the major iron ore Port Hedland port because of the flood, in early January to stop the basic operations, maritime freight falling rapidly. Data shows, January 20th, Capesize freight index fell to 1566 points, relatively dropped October 22, 2010 64%.
The same Queensland Australia flood also let Panama boat market suffered heavy losses. Affected as a result of the flood, the Lanzhou main colliery, railroad and haven were affected,35% Australian coking coal export in the production of Queensland paralyzed, Lanzhou's largest coking coal exports to Hong Kong Lin Pugang traffic is normally60% to70%. In addition, Columbia, South Africa, Russia and Indonesia weather related disasters also aggravated on coal transport disruption.
Since Australia flood impact, buyers to the North American market. The east coast of the United States and Canada coal transport market is particularly active, central the Atlantic (600558, shares ) routes to rent more than $20000 in fluctuation, once led the Panama ship price rebound. But since Australia flood impact, market vacancy vessels increased, Panama boat freight rate to drop again. In January 20th, Panama boat ( BPI ) freight rate index points to 1710, relatively dropped in October 22, 2010 25.7%.
However, the dry bulk market depression of the fundamental reason lies in the market transport power superfluous. Clark Song data shows,2010 more than197 transport power to equal or exceed Capesize bulk carriers of the newly entered the market, the global fiftieth boats by the supertanker ( VLCC ) converted super large ore carrier ( VLOC ) also consign shipowners, involving the capacity up to 35700000 DWT, not only set a record, at the same time2009delivery of new vessels for 113 of the total ship ( converted21200000 carring capacity ton )75% higher, more new ships into the market, resulting in serious excess capacity.
In 2011, the international dry bulk shipping market will still be faced with the pressure of excess capacity
Due to China's Australian iron ore demand in 2011will still keep stable, and Japan and India team the dependence, the market is widely expected, with the flood subsided and the Australian production of the restoration, the future market of dry bulk cargo is expected to turn for the better, BDI is expected to rebound slightly.
But in the market under the background of excess capacity, the 2011 global dry bulk market prosperous scene appears very hard, BDI rebound of the limited space.
According to Clark Song statistics, as of December 10, 2010, the global shipyard handheld orders for3255 aircraft, more than 278000000tons deadweight capacity, accounting for the global active fleet gross tonnage52.55%, compared with 2009new shipbuilding order quantity slightly eased, but the present has transport power superfluous global dry bulk shipping market is still not little impact. Especially the Cape-based ship in the world, the miners have developed independent fleet, to the traditional shipping industry a greater impact.